Discussion:
The importance of accurate age estimates (and the need for robust dating methods)
(too old to reply)
Mario Petrinovic
2024-05-03 02:41:06 UTC
Permalink
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/05/240501091650.htm
And then everybody will use molecular clock, which isn't accurate at
all, actually, it is always wrong, but it has one advancement, you can
adjust it the way you like it. My god, science is such a joke.
JTEM
2024-05-03 04:09:29 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mario Petrinovic
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/05/240501091650.htm
        And then everybody will use molecular clock, which isn't
accurate at all, actually, it is always wrong, but it has one
advancement, you can adjust it the way you like it. My god, science is
such a joke.
When they change the dating by 1,000%, I want to see the previous
dating methods and what they did wrong. It should be monumental,
the errors.

This just seems ridiculous, re-dating 10x younger and not even
tearing down the old dating? Just saying "We've got new stuff."
--
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JTEM
2024-05-03 04:41:03 UTC
Permalink
Post by JTEM
Post by Mario Petrinovic
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/05/240501091650.htm
         And then everybody will use molecular clock, which isn't
accurate at all, actually, it is always wrong, but it has one
advancement, you can adjust it the way you like it. My god, science is
such a joke.
When they change the dating by 1,000%, I want to see the previous
dating methods and what they did wrong. It should be monumental,
the errors.
This just seems ridiculous, re-dating 10x younger and not even
tearing down the old dating? Just saying "We've got new stuff."
Wiki hasn't been fudged yet, as of the time of my posting this,
but it places the age at 68k at a minimum.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liujiang_man

: High rates of variability yielded by various dating techniques
: carried out by different researchers place the most widely accepted
: range of dates with 68,000 BP as a minimum, but does not rule out
: dates as old as 159,000 BP.

So it's strange but I auto-suspect anything that re-writes
previous fines to align with the Out of Africa purity
narrative.
--
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Mario Petrinovic
2024-05-03 06:57:14 UTC
Permalink
Post by JTEM
Post by JTEM
Post by Mario Petrinovic
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/05/240501091650.htm
         And then everybody will use molecular clock, which isn't
accurate at all, actually, it is always wrong, but it has one
advancement, you can adjust it the way you like it. My god, science
is such a joke.
When they change the dating by 1,000%, I want to see the previous
dating methods and what they did wrong. It should be monumental,
the errors.
This just seems ridiculous, re-dating 10x younger and not even
tearing down the old dating? Just saying "We've got new stuff."
Wiki hasn't been fudged yet, as of the time of my posting this,
but it places the age at 68k at a minimum.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liujiang_man
:  High rates of variability yielded by various dating techniques
:  carried out by different researchers place the most widely accepted
:  range of dates with 68,000 BP as a minimum, but does not rule out
:  dates as old as 159,000 BP.
So it's strange but I auto-suspect anything that re-writes
previous fines to align with the Out of Africa purity
narrative.
Of course, you are right. I just want to say that this fossil was
discovered 66 years ago, in China, so, who knows, you can expect that
something wouldn't be done correctly. I wanted to point out to the use
of completely unreliable molecular clock. Why scientists do that? This
is completely senseless, stupid, sloven. And yet, absolutely every paper
that I read revolves around molecular clock estimations. Now, who is
crazy here? The whole world? The whole scientific community? What the
heck is going on, for gods sake? Are they all so stupid?
Primum Sapienti
2024-05-04 05:08:15 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mario Petrinovic
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/05/240501091650.htm
        And then everybody will use molecular clock, which isn't
accurate at all, actually, it is always wrong, but it has one
advancement, you can adjust it the way you like it. My god, science is
such a joke.
The paper is public and explains things better.


https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47787-3
New Late Pleistocene age for the Homo sapiens
skeleton from Liujiang southern China
29 April 2024

Abstract
The emergence of Homo sapiens in Eastern Asia
is a topic of significant research interest.
However, well-preserved human fossils in secure,
dateable contexts in this region are extremely
rare, and often the subject of intense debate
owing to stratigraphic and geochronological
problems. Tongtianyan cave, in Liujiang
District of Liuzhou City, southern China is one
of the most important fossils finds of H.
sapiens, though its age has been debated, with
chronometric dates ranging from the late Middle
Pleistocene to the early Late Pleistocene. Here
we provide new age estimates and revised
provenience information for the Liujiang human
fossils, which represent one of the most
complete fossil skeletons of H. sapiens in
China. U-series dating on the human fossils and
radiocarbon and optically stimulated
luminescence dating on the fossil-bearing
sediments provided ages ranging from ~33,000 to
23,000 years ago (ka). The revised age estimates
correspond with the dates of other human fossils
in northern China, at Tianyuan Cave
(~40.8–38.1 ka) and Zhoukoudian Upper Cave
(39.0–36.3 ka), indicating the geographically
widespread presence of H. sapiens across Eastern
Asia in the Late Pleistocene, which is
significant for better understanding human
dispersals and adaptations in the region.


"The Liujiang materials were originally recovered in September 1958
JTEM
2024-05-04 05:41:17 UTC
Permalink
Primum Sapienti wrote:


Here
Post by Primum Sapienti
we provide new age estimates and revised
provenience information for the Liujiang human
fossils
There were numerous attempts at dating. What was
wrong with them? That's the issue.

The fact that one dating result is different from
another is routine. Hardly noteworthy. The claim
here is that there was something wrong with all
the other dating efforts. What was wrong with them?
--
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Primum Sapienti
2024-05-04 05:48:45 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mario Petrinovic
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/05/240501091650.htm
And then everybody will use molecular clock, which isn't
accurate at all, actually, it is always wrong, but it has one
advancement, you can adjust it the way you like it. My god, science is
such a joke.

The paper is public and explains things better.


https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47787-3
New Late Pleistocene age for the Homo sapiens
skeleton from Liujiang southern China
29 April 2024

Abstract
The emergence of Homo sapiens in Eastern Asia
is a topic of significant research interest.
However, well-preserved human fossils in secure,
dateable contexts in this region are extremely
rare, and often the subject of intense debate
owing to stratigraphic and geochronological
problems. Tongtianyan cave, in Liujiang
District of Liuzhou City, southern China is one
of the most important fossils finds of H.
sapiens, though its age has been debated, with
chronometric dates ranging from the late Middle
Pleistocene to the early Late Pleistocene. Here
we provide new age estimates and revised
provenience information for the Liujiang human
fossils, which represent one of the most
complete fossil skeletons of H. sapiens in
China. U-series dating on the human fossils and
radiocarbon and optically stimulated
luminescence dating on the fossil-bearing
sediments provided ages ranging from ~33,000 to
23,000 years ago (ka). The revised age estimates
correspond with the dates of other human fossils
in northern China, at Tianyuan Cave
(~40.8–38.1 ka) and Zhoukoudian Upper Cave
(39.0–36.3 ka), indicating the geographically
widespread presence of H. sapiens across Eastern
Asia in the Late Pleistocene, which is
significant for better understanding human
dispersals and adaptations in the region.


"The Liujiang materials were originally
recovered in September 1958, in a cave
called Tongtianyan by workmen digging for
phosphorous fertilizer..."

Less than a decade after the 1949 revolution
and possibly not the best of times for science
pursuits. AND the site was chewed up by workers
after fertilizer components. Yikes. Definitely
not promising.



"Since the discovery of the hominin fossils,
two independent radiometric dating projects
have been conducted. Using conventional
radiocarbon and classic α-counting U-series
dating methods, Yuan and colleagues obtained
a 14C age of 3.0 ± 0.2 ka cal BP for the
flowstone near the cave entrance, a U-series
age of 67 + 6/−5 ka for the thick flowstone on
top of Unit II (see Supplementary Information,
section 1.2), and U-series ages ranging between
227 and 95 ka for the mammalian fossils. The
investigators suggested that the human fossils
were older than ~67 ka, but they noted that this
age estimate remained to be verified given the
uncertain provenience of the finds. A later
attempt to establish the age of the Liujiang
deposits was by Shen and colleagues14,16 using
α-counting and thermal ionization mass
spectrometry U-series methods to date the
flowstones from various depositional units
and mammalian fossils. The researchers
concluded that the human fossils dated to at
least ~68 ka and more likely to ~139–111 ka if
they came from the refilling breccia. ..."

Morphological comparisions did come close to the
new revised dates but radiometric dating is
preferred.

According to the references those earlier
radiometric dating efforts were in 1986, 2002,
and 2004. Looks like they were taking the
dating of the layers and faunal remains as being
applicable to the hominid fossils. This is
usually a reliable way to do things but as noted,
this should probably be considered a disturbed
site thanks to those fertilizer hunters.

"Tongtianyan cave has long been seen as a
site demonstrating the co-existence of H.
sapiens alongside Ailuropoda-Stegodon
fauna during the Late Pleistocene of south
China, reinforcing evidence for the deep
antiquity of the human fossils. Previous
U-series dating of seven fossil teeth ranged
from 227 to 95 ka. We collected eight
mammalian fossil teeth for U-series dating
to test this relationship. ... disturbed
sediments as a consequence of digging for
fertilizer ... However, the human fossils
were distinct from the mammalian fauna in
terms of U-series isotopic ratios and
apparent U-series ages (Fig. 5c), indicating
that there is no association between the
human fossils and the Ailuropoda-Stegodon
fauna."

This new paper represents a more meticulous
effort to pin things down.

"In sum, provenience and dating studies have
been conducted on the flowstone, sediments
and the human and mammalian fossil remains.
Our proveniencing results indicate that the
Liujiang human fossils derived from Layer 2
of Unit III. Layer 2 ranged from 32.5 ± 2.5 to
22.6 ± 7.4 ka using Bayesian analysis on
radiocarbon, OSL and carbonate U-series ages.
U-series dating on the human fossils provided
a minimum age of 23.9 ± 0.5 ka, falling into
the age range for Layer 2. Collectively, the
age of the Liujiang human fossils can be
constrained to ~33–23 ka. The mammalian fossils
dated to between 227 ka and 95 ka by U-series
methods indicate a significant hiatus between
the deposition of the Ailuropoda-Stegodon fauna
and the human remains."

If only someone had found that site before
workmen chewed things up this would have been
resolved a long time ago.
JTEM
2024-05-04 06:10:10 UTC
Permalink
Post by Primum Sapienti
If only someone had found that site before
workmen chewed things up this would have been
resolved a long time ago.
Lol! It's not resolved now! Seriously? Do you need to
be told: Debates BEGIN with publication! If publication
settled things, things were settled 20 year ago!

It's not all science here.

Whenever you see the words "Bayesian analysis" it's telling
you that it ain't all science.
--
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Mario Petrinovic
2024-05-04 18:24:24 UTC
Permalink
Post by Primum Sapienti
If only someone had found that site before
workmen chewed things up this would have been
resolved a long time ago.
Lol!  It's not resolved now! Seriously? Do you need to
be told:  Debates BEGIN with publication!  If publication
settled things, things were settled 20 year ago!
It's not all science here.
Whenever you see the words "Bayesian analysis" it's telling
you that it ain't all science.
How come everybody is blind to my point that the whole
paleoanthropology revolves around completely unreliable molecular clock
dating? Why is this so? How come nobody bothers?
Primum Sapienti
2024-05-08 04:52:27 UTC
Permalink
        How come everybody is blind to my point that the whole
paleoanthropology revolves around completely unreliable molecular clock
dating? Why is this so? How come nobody bothers?
Neither your article link nor the paper itself mention
molecular dating. It's only one method of analysis and
the primary. You'll note the researchers used radiometric
and optical methods. Molecular clock methods only came
into use in the 60s.
JTEM
2024-05-08 19:26:46 UTC
Permalink
Primum Sapienti wrote:

You'll note the researchers used radiometric
Post by Primum Sapienti
and optical methods.
Would the "Bayesian analysis" be radiometric or
the optical?
--
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Mario Petrinovic
2024-05-08 20:13:17 UTC
Permalink
Post by Primum Sapienti
         How come everybody is blind to my point that the whole
paleoanthropology revolves around completely unreliable molecular
clock dating? Why is this so? How come nobody bothers?
Neither your article link nor the paper itself mention
molecular dating. It's only one method of analysis and
the primary. You'll note the researchers used radiometric
and optical methods. Molecular clock methods only came
into use in the 60s.
How can you put so much knowledge into such a small brain? Hm, this
article is talking about the need for having reliable method. You know a
lot of "what", you have no clue of any "why". You don't realize the
*importance* of having reliable method, you only know that there are
methods (and you even know when they started to use a specific method).
And at the end, you are saying that science uses completely unreliable
method for the last 60 years, and you even don't blink an eye on that
notion. Like, it has to be that way, it *doesn't matter* at all if this
is unreliable. See, you know "what", but you don't understand "why". It
is so easy to know, every idiot can do that, but it isn't a common thing
to understand, this is what cannot every idiot do.
And now I am surrounded with all those idiots who know so much, but
who are completely unable to understand anything. And they are looking
at me from above, because they have a knowledge, and they feel so
comfortable, those idiots finally found their place in society, learn
and you will go up, even if you are completely unable to understand,
even if you brain doesn't work. And now we have all those brainless
idiots telling us what to do, because they learnt it from books, lol.
Following their simple, childish, kindergarten level, patterns.
Primum Sapienti
2024-05-09 19:57:40 UTC
Permalink
Post by Primum Sapienti
         How come everybody is blind to my point that the whole
paleoanthropology revolves around completely unreliable molecular
clock dating? Why is this so? How come nobody bothers?
Neither your article link nor the paper itself mention
molecular dating. It's only one method of analysis and
the primary. You'll note the researchers used radiometric
and optical methods. Molecular clock methods only came
into use in the 60s.
        How can you put so much knowledge into such a small brain? Hm,
this article is talking about the need for having reliable method. You
Techniques improve and that helps reliability. Such
is on display for the re-examining of this site. Do
not forget that the Liujiang site is a disturbed site.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disturbance_(archaeology)

"A disturbance is any change to an archaeological
site due to events which occurred after the site
was laid down. Disturbances may be caused by
natural events or human activity, and may result
in loss of archaeological value. In some cases, it
can be difficult to distinguish between features
caused by human activity in the period of interest,
and features caused by later human activity or
natural processes."

The Liujiang site was afflicted by workers digging
for "phosphorous fertilizer". Well, they didn't know
it was an archaeological site. But that does make
any analysis harder to conduct.
know a lot of "what", you have no clue of any "why". You don't realize
the *importance* of having reliable method, you only know that there are
methods (and you even know when they started to use a specific method).
And at the end, you are saying that science uses completely unreliable
method for the last 60 years, and you even don't blink an eye on that
notion. Like, it has to be that way, it *doesn't matter* at all if this
is unreliable. See, you know "what", but you don't understand "why". It
is so easy to know, every idiot can do that, but it isn't a common thing
to understand, this is what cannot every idiot do.
        And now I am surrounded with all those idiots who know so much,
but who are completely unable to understand anything. And they are
looking at me from above, because they have a knowledge, and they feel
so comfortable, those idiots finally found their place in society, learn
and you will go up, even if you are completely unable to understand,
even if you brain doesn't work. And now we have all those brainless
idiots telling us what to do, because they learnt it from books, lol.
Following their simple, childish, kindergarten level, patterns.
JTEM
2024-05-09 21:17:42 UTC
Permalink
Post by Primum Sapienti
Techniques improve and that helps reliability.
STOP being a pussy! Explain:

Would the "Bayesian analysis" be radiometric or
the optical?

Actually, and this is funny, but a "Bayesian analysis"
of Naledi only got the dating, what was it? Like off
by 100%.

It determined that Naledia was about 900,000 years
old. So, more than twice as old as it actually was,
very possibly 3x as old as it actually was...

PREDICTED RESPONSE: "I scratched my bum and now my
fingers smells bad. Why that?"

The debate BEGINS with publication. If it doesn't,
then we're looking at north of 60,000 years old
and maybe north of 150,000 years old.
--
https://jtem.tumblr.com/tagged/The%20Book%20of%20JTEM/page/5
Mario Petrinovic
2024-05-09 21:30:07 UTC
Permalink
Post by JTEM
Post by Primum Sapienti
Techniques improve and that helps reliability.
Would the "Bayesian analysis" be radiometric or
the optical?
Actually, and this is funny, but a "Bayesian analysis"
of Naledi only got the dating, what was it? Like off
by 100%.
It determined that Naledia was about 900,000 years
old. So, more than twice as old as it actually was,
very possibly 3x as old as it actually was...
PREDICTED RESPONSE:  "I scratched my bum and now my
fingers smells bad. Why that?"
The debate BEGINS with publication. If it doesn't,
then we're looking at north of 60,000 years old
and maybe north of 150,000 years old.
You scratched your bum and now your fingers smell bad? This is a free
test on COVID, you don't have it, :) .
JTEM
2024-05-09 22:00:20 UTC
Permalink
        You scratched your bum and now your fingers smell bad? This is
a free test on COVID, you don't have it, :) .
We had a Republican Governor, Charlie Baker, who determined
that is a person inserted a finger up their bum hole, and
their finger thereafter, and without washing, produced an
aroma that was not entirely pleasant to experience, you
were infected and needed to quarantine for 18 weeks. If you
owned a business it needed to be shuttered, unless it was
a liquor store. Old people needed to die no I meant locked
away and never heard from again, until the casket arrived,
we presume, but how can you know when there's no funeral?
Plus take education away from children. And forget religious
freedom, no churches. No constitution: Rule by decree.

I went back & looked. I started bitching about the over the
top, unnecessarily EXCESSIVE and quite unlawful idiocy of
the lockdown back in March of 2020.

They first began here in March of 2020, btw.
--
https://jtem.tumblr.com/tagged/The%20Book%20of%20JTEM/page/5
Mario Petrinovic
2024-05-10 00:13:03 UTC
Permalink
Post by JTEM
         You scratched your bum and now your fingers smell bad? This
is a free test on COVID, you don't have it, :) .
We had a Republican Governor, Charlie Baker, who determined
that is a person inserted a finger up their bum hole, and
their finger thereafter, and without washing, produced an
aroma that was not entirely pleasant to experience, you
were infected and needed to quarantine for 18 weeks. If you
owned a business it needed to be shuttered, unless it was
a liquor store. Old people needed to die no I meant locked
away and never heard from again, until the casket arrived,
we presume, but how can you know when there's no funeral?
Plus take education away from children. And forget religious
freedom, no churches. No constitution:  Rule by decree.
I went back & looked. I started bitching about the over the
top, unnecessarily EXCESSIVE and quite unlawful idiocy of
the lockdown back in March of 2020.
They first began here in March of 2020, btw.
Gee, I just love democracy (and my Sopwith Camel, :) ).

JTEM
2024-05-10 01:22:01 UTC
Permalink
        Gee, I just love democracy
JTEM loved it even when others were afraid to:

https://jtem.tumblr.com/post/745376505213943808

JTEM is truth. And fluffy bunnies. Baby bunnies. And
pastels. But mostly truth.
--
https://jtem.tumblr.com/tagged/The%20Book%20of%20JTEM/page/5
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